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NOAA predicts increased hurricane activity in U.S.

May 19, 2005

Hurricane Frances, 2004

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association announced that it expects seven to nine hurricanes in the coming Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 to November 30), with three to four of them becoming "major".

"Major" hurricanes are defined as category 3 or above, having sustained winds above 111 mph. The annual predictions, the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook, were made as part of National Hurricane Preparedness Week, which began Sunday May 15.

This year's forecast is an increase from last season's, which was of six to eight hurricanes, two to three of them major. NOAA's predictions for 2004 were lower than the actual figures, which were nine hurricanes, six of them category 3 or above.

That unexpectedly heavy season had four of those storms hit Florida, and battered U.S. oil production. Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne slammed into Florida during a six-week period last year, causing over $40 billion in damage. Hurricane Ivan was the most damaging on record for the U.S. oil industry.

There were 60 direct deaths from hurricanes in 2004.

The NOAA report cites abnormally high sea surface temperature, low wind shear and low surface pressure as reasons for the high forecast. Although it is still too early to determine when or where hurricanes might hit this season, the agency is advising residents in at-risk areas to be prepared.

Scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Hurricane Research Division and at the National Hurricane Center cooperated to produce the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook.

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