Good article
Very possible. I note that we don't yet seem to know the details of the case against him; if we're looking at a case where the stuff was mailed back unrecorded (whatever version of signed-for mail the USPS uses) then it could boil down to his word versus the cult's.
Some updates will be probably appear in the future here http://markrathbun.wordpress.com/ , here http://ocmb.xenu.net/ocmb/viewtopic.php?t=32939 , and here http://forums.whyweprotest.net/291-scientology-discussion/sea-orger-blows-set-up-moxon-arrested-72337/ . Cheers.