The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the European Space Agency (ESA) have further lowered the predicted likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth, citing refined trajectory calculations based on new observational data. Initially discovered in December 2024, the asteroid was estimated to have a 2.3% chance of collision on December 22, 2032. However, as of February 24, 2025, NASA has updated its assessment, indicating on the Planetary Defense blog that "there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century."
A photo of the aftermath of the 1908 Tunguska event, where an atmospheric explosion flattened and burned approximately 80 million trees across 2,150 square kilometers of remote Siberian forest. Image: Leonid Kulik, the expedition to the Tunguska event.
Despite the diminished risk to Earth, NASA states there remains a 1.7% chance that 2024 YR4 could impact the Moon on the same date. The asteroid was estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet in diameter. A similar-sized object likely caused the 1908 Tunguska event in Siberia, which leveled several hundred acres of remote forest.
Scientists planned to continue to monitor 2024 YR4 using various observatories, including the James Webb Space Telescope. These efforts aim to refine estimates of the asteroid's size and trajectory, enhancing planetary defense preparedness. NASA released a statement that read in-part; "While this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity." Further assessments are planned, particularly as the asteroid is expected to make another close approach in 2028.
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